Submitted Abstract
The surge of populism in Europe is usually perceived as a rebellion of globalization’s losers. Combining theoretical and empirical analyses, EUFIRST is a 48-month, cross-university project gathering experts in trade/migration economics and political economy. EUFIRST aims to shed light on the complex relationships between globalization, inequality and populism. Relying on macro- and micro-data, our objective is to gain understanding of (i) the conditions that cause natives’ hostile or positive reactions to trade and immigration; (ii) the specific determinants of left-wing and right-wing responses; (iii) the political competition induced by the entry or by the rise of populist parties (how does populism affect the political platform of traditional parties?); and (iv) the reverse impact of populism on the size and structure of trade and immigration. On this basis, we aim to explore the dynamic properties of a model accounting for the bi-directional relationships between globalization and populism: can globalization and its related financial/economic shocks trigger vicious circles, long-lasting episodes of populism, or populism traps? We will confront our theory with the data, and use it to elaborate prospects for the coming decades.